![]() but if everybody follows that strategy, then the payout will be less for people following that strategy. TL/DR: picking the most frequent numbers to come up since last time the balls were changed is in principle a slightly better strategy than just randomly selecting numbers It is certainly a smarter strategy than the "Gambler's Fallacy" of selecting numbers that have come up the least number of times because they are "due to have their turn". ![]() Our "knowledge" that the drawing has completely even probability for every number is actually just an assumption based on trust in a manufacturing and handling procedure - not an absolute knowledge. So from a purely statistical point of view, the best available strategy for picking winning numbers would be to select the numbers that have come up most times since the last time the balls were changed. When the balls roll around they will bump into each other and introduce wear, which will further increase the differences between balls. There will be small bumps on the surface that varies from ball to ball and the center of balance will be slightly offset as well. That is the main reason they list their winning numbers - to document that there are no numbers that come up with a higher frequency than they statistically should.īias comes from the fact that despite every effort, the balls used in the drawing can never be exactly identical. Carl Sagan, Cosmosīias will always be there, but they are doing their damnedest best to reduce it to a level where it is not relevant. We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and by the depth of our answers. For more open-ended questions, try /r/AskScienceDiscussion | Sign up to be a panelist!. ![]()
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